March se West Asia war ke escalation ne India ke automotive or component manufacturers ko aise operational changes karne par force kar diya hai jo pehle kabhi dekhne ko nahi mile. Jo strategies kuch months pehle tak important nahi lagti thi, woh ab daily ke survival tactics ban chuki hai.
For example, ek vehicle OEM ne production halt hone avoid karne ke liye 400 vendors ke LPG stock ka daily basis par kaafi strict monitoring system start kiya hai, itna detailed micro management pehle maybe kisi ne socha bhi nahi tha. Isi tarah, ek big giant auto parts manufacturer ko apne LPG dependent kuch processes ko electric heating par shift karna pada or gas flow ko optimize bhi karna pada. Isse company ne apni overall gas dependency ko approx. 20% tak reduce kar diya.
Furthermore, nationwide OEMs increase hote energy or raw material costs se deal karne liye retail prices increase kar rahe hai, whereas market demand mein thoda slowdown ke signs bhi dikhne lage hai. Ek big two wheeler manufacturer ne bataya ki recent price hikes ne last September GST 2.0 rollout ke baad consumers ko jo benefits mile the, unmein se around 40% ka effect already khatam kar diya hai.
Additionally, LPG ki shortage ki wajah se labour availability par bhi pressure pad raha hai. Reports ke according, migrant workers cooking fuel ki shortage ke chalte apne hometowns wapas ja rahe hai, jiski wajah se industry ko existing orders complete karne mein or problems aa rahi hai.
Close monitoring of supply chains
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) ke Group CEO or MD Anish Shah ne March quarter ke results ke baad market ki uncertainty par baat karte hue kaha ki war ki wajah se supply chain mein kaafi disruptions or shocks dekhne ko mile hai.
"Mujhe pata hai tum log yeh cheezein roz read karte ho or companies ko dekh kar yeh sochte rehte ho ki, yaar tum apni supply chain kaise manage kar rahe ho? But yahan ek or cheez bhi hui hai. COVID ke during humne bahut kuch learn kiya or un lessons ko use karke hum more resilient ho gaye hai, so that future mein agar koi problem ya enexpected situation aaye toh usse better handle kar sakein. Ek time aisa bhi tha jab hum roz subha around 400 suppliers ko monitor kar rahe the or unke LPG stock par nazar rakh rahe the. And the reality is humne kabhi socha bhi nahi tha ki humein kabhi aisa karna padega," Shah ne kaha.
"Jaise ki aap sab jaante hai, humne is problem ko thoda manage kar liya hai by shifting our gas requirement ka ek part electric heating par. Yeh humne gas flow optimise karke or kuch processes modify karke kiya," Sona BLW precision ke MD or Group CEO Vivek Vikram Singh ne kaha. Unhone yeh bhi bataya ki in changes ki wajah se company ki total LPG requirement approx. 20%tak reduce ho gayi.
Rakesh Sharma, jo Bajaj Auto ke Joint MD hai, unhone fuel shortage, labour constraints, or international markets ke liye outbound logistics issues ke impact ke baare mein or detail mein baat ki. Unka kehna tha ki in sab factors ki wajah se demand ko properly service karne mein around 10-15% tak ka impact pada hai. Sharma ne Gulf region mein business loss ko bhi mention kiya, jahan se company ko every month around 5,000 se 6,000 units ka business milta tha.
Steady expansion forecasts
In sab systemic pressures ke despite, corporate sentiment surprisingly kaafi positive bana hua hai. Sector ki management teams ne confidence show kiya hai ki woh FY 2026-27 mein strong growth achieve karenge.
M&M assume kar rahe hai ki unka SUV business is year kaafi strong perform karega, or woh last year ke high base ke baad bhi around 15-18% growth expect kar rahe hai. Wahin, Maruti expect kar rahi hai ki growth 10% se bhi zyada rahegi, jiska reason dealers ke paas low inventory or around 1.9 lakh pending orders ka backlog hai. Bajaj assume kar rahe hai ki overall motorcycle market ki growth thodi slow hoke 7-9% tak aa sakti hai (jo pehle 20% thi), but unhe confidence hai ki unke 125cc+ or 150cc+ bike segment industry average se around 2X better perform karengi. Other side, Hero ne apna target same rakha hai or is year high single digit volume growth expect kar rahe hai.
But agar yeh conflict lamba chalta raha, toh yeh optimism reality check se collide kar sakta hai. Saath hi, agar monsoon expected se below raha, toh rural areas mein demand par bhi effect pad sakta hai, jiska impact financial year ke second half mein sales par dekhne ko mil sakta hai.
Economic challenges and profit margin forecast
Industry abhi ek "commodity super cycle" se connect ho rahi hai, jahan steel, copper, aluminum or lithium jaise important materials ki prices mein zabardast inflation dekhne ko mil raha hai. In raw materials ke increase hote cost ka direct effect companies ke revenue or profit margins par padne wala hai. Yeh situation kitni serious hai, iska assumption Bajaj Auto ke numbers se lagaya ja sakta hai, steel ki prices 15% tak increase ho chuka hai, copper mein 20% ka price hike hua hai, or aluminum ke saath noble metals mein toh 35-45%tak ka massive jump dekhne ko mila hai.
Looking ahead, Bajaj ko lagta hai ki FY 2026-27 ke June quarter mein material cost ka revenue par around 3.5-4 ka impact pad sakta hai, jise company "samajhdari se" price adjustment karke balance karne ki planning kar rahi hai. Wahin Hero ne kaha ki Bill of Materials (BOM) cost mein high single-digit increase hua hai, but company ko ab bhi confident hai ki woh medium term mein 14-16% ka margin maintain kar legi. Other side, Sona BLW precision ne apni EBITDA margin guidance ko revise karke 23-25% kar diya hai, or M&M ne bhi long term 18% return on Equity (ROE) target dobara confirm kar diya hai.